Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Ian McCall
62%
38%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
26-14
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-5-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pickett: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
McCall: 56 sig / 3 TD
Brad Pickett
Ian McCall
54
Sig strikes landed
49
131
Sig strikes attempted
124
75
Total strikes landed
65
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
184s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
26-14
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W1
Ian McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
14-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—