Back to UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
Prelims2 Middleweight

Kevin Casey vs Bubba Bush

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Kevin Casey
Bubba Bush
46% 54%
Why
33
Age
Δ 4y
29
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Casey: 15 sig / 0 TD · Bush: 2 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Casey
Bubba Bush
30
Sig strikes landed
28
52
Sig strikes attempted
44
42
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kevin Casey

"King"
9-6-2 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner

Bubba Bush

"The Fightin' Texas Aggie"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29