Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Viktor Pesta
Ruslan Magomedov
45%
55%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pesta: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Magomedov: 47 sig / 0 TD
Viktor Pesta
Ruslan Magomedov
34
Sig strikes landed
36
67
Sig strikes attempted
69
48
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Viktor Pesta
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
Ruslan Magomedov
"Leopard"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28