Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Josh Shockley
52%
48%
Why
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Saggo: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Shockley: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jason Saggo
Josh Shockley
36
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
78
52
Total strikes landed
51
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jason Saggo
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Josh Shockley
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25