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Patrick Cummins vs Roger Narvaez

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov ·Tingley Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Patrick Cummins
Roger Narvaez
46% 54%
Why
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cummins: 32 sig / 3 TD · Narvaez: 3 sig / 0 TD
Patrick Cummins
Roger Narvaez
24
Sig strikes landed
36
53
Sig strikes attempted
63
30
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
94s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Patrick Cummins

"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner

Roger Narvaez

"Silverback"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31