Main
Lightweight
Benson Henderson vs Rustam Khabilov
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov
·Tingley Coliseum
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Rustam Khabilov
49%
51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
25-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-4
W1
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Henderson: 26 sig / 1 TD ·
Khabilov: 18 sig / 6 TD
Benson Henderson
Rustam Khabilov
40
Sig strikes landed
34
92
Sig strikes attempted
90
62
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.2
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
132s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
Blue corner
W3
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—