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Prelims2 Welterweight

Anthony Lapsley vs Albert Tumenov

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva ·U.S. Bank Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Anthony Lapsley
Albert Tumenov
43% 57%
Why
34
Age
Δ 12y
22
23-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lapsley: 2 sig / 0 TD · Tumenov: 6 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Lapsley
Albert Tumenov
20
Sig strikes landed
33
45
Sig strikes attempted
60
52
Total strikes landed
47
2.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
314s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Anthony Lapsley

"The Recipe"
23-8 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
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Blue corner
L1

Albert Tumenov

"Einstein"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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