Prelims2
Featherweight
Manvel Gamburyan vs Nik Lentz
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
·U.S. Bank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Manvel Gamburyan
Nik Lentz
20%
80%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
15-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
30-13-2
W2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gamburyan: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Lentz: 52 sig / 4 TD
Manvel Gamburyan
Nik Lentz
26
Sig strikes landed
44
55
Sig strikes attempted
84
49
Total strikes landed
70
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.8
4.6
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
196s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
15-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
Blue corner
L1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-13-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—