Main
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic vs Fabio Maldonado
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado
·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Fabio Maldonado
70%
30%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
21-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-11
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miocic: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Maldonado: 2 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Fabio Maldonado
62
Sig strikes landed
42
130
Sig strikes attempted
103
85
Total strikes landed
66
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
152s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
Blue corner
W3
Fabio Maldonado
"Caipira de Aco"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—