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Main Welterweight

Demian Maia vs Alexander Yakovlev

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Alexander Yakovlev
60% 40%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
L2
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 29 sig / 2 TD · Yakovlev: 22 sig / 1 TD
Demian Maia
Alexander Yakovlev
28
Sig strikes landed
33
67
Sig strikes attempted
72
52
Total strikes landed
49
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.4
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
294s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Demian Maia

28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
Blue corner

Alexander Yakovlev

"Russian Thunder"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30