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Mauricio Rua vs Dan Henderson

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 ·Ginasio Nelio Dias
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Mauricio Rua
Dan Henderson
73% 27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 11y
44
28-14-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
32-16
W1
Current streak
L3
8
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rua: 48 sig / 1 TD · Henderson: 23 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Rua
Dan Henderson
42
Sig strikes landed
34
82
Sig strikes attempted
69
60
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Mauricio Rua

"Shogun"
28-14-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
L3

Dan Henderson

"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database 4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—