Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nam Phan
Vaughan Lee
68%
32%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
21-18
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-14-1
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Phan: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 142 sig / 0 TD
Nam Phan
Vaughan Lee
43
Sig strikes landed
67
120
Sig strikes attempted
165
58
Total strikes landed
69
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Nam Phan
21-18
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 2-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Vaughan Lee
14-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—