Prelims1
Welterweight
Sean Spencer vs Alex Garcia
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sean Spencer
Alex Garcia
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
27
13-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-6
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Spencer: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 61 sig / 8 TD
Sean Spencer
Alex Garcia
32
Sig strikes landed
44
108
Sig strikes attempted
106
36
Total strikes landed
43
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
16s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
13-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—