Main
Middleweight
Lorenz Larkin vs Brad Tavares
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
·Arena at Gwinett Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lorenz Larkin
Brad Tavares
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
19-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Larkin: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Tavares: 45 sig / 2 TD
Lorenz Larkin
Brad Tavares
39
Sig strikes landed
51
99
Sig strikes attempted
122
47
Total strikes landed
67
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
58s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lorenz Larkin
"The Monsoon"
19-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
Blue corner
W4
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—