Prelims1
Flyweight
Phil Harris vs Louis Gaudinot
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Phil Harris
Louis Gaudinot
64%
36%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
63"
30
Age
Δ 1y
30
22-13
Career record
Δ 1 pp
8-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 1
Harris: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaudinot: 2 sig / 0 TD
Phil Harris
Louis Gaudinot
35
Sig strikes landed
32
79
Sig strikes attempted
86
61
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Harris
"Billy"
22-13
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L1
Louis Gaudinot
"Goodnight"
8-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—