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Prelims1 Welterweight

Igor Araujo vs Danny Mitchell

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Igor Araujo
Danny Mitchell
63% 37%
Why
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Araujo: 12 sig / 0 TD · Mitchell: 18 sig / 0 TD
Igor Araujo
Danny Mitchell
27
Sig strikes landed
25
63
Sig strikes attempted
55
55
Total strikes landed
43
2.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
5.9
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
245s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Igor Araujo

26-9 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
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Blue corner

Danny Mitchell

"The Cheesecake Assassin"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28