Back to UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa
Prelims1 Middleweight

Luke Barnatt vs Mats Nilsson

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Barnatt
Mats Nilsson
67% 33%
Why
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barnatt: 45 sig / 0 TD · Nilsson: 25 sig / 0 TD
Luke Barnatt
Mats Nilsson
52
Sig strikes landed
42
112
Sig strikes attempted
100
61
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
62s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Luke Barnatt

"The Bigslow"
14-4
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
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Blue corner

Mats Nilsson

0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30