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Prelims1 Featherweight

Max Holloway vs Will Chope

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim ·Marina Bay Sands
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Will Chope
51% 49%
Why
22
Age
Δ 1y
23
L2
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Holloway: 74 sig / 0 TD · Chope: 33 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Will Chope
54
Sig strikes landed
52
134
Sig strikes attempted
122
68
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
96s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Max Holloway

"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
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L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
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W UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
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W UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
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Blue corner

Will Chope

"The Kill"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
23