Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Gasan Umalatov
72%
28%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 9"
71"
26
Age
Δ 5y
31
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Magny: 71 sig / 1 TD ·
Umalatov: 34 sig / 2 TD
Neil Magny
Gasan Umalatov
37
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
67
57
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
97s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
Gasan Umalatov
"Cobra"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31