Back to UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Prelims2 Lightweight

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Rashid Magomedov

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Anthony Rocco Martin
Rashid Magomedov
47% 53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
24
Age
Δ 5y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Martin: 18 sig / 1 TD · Magomedov: 46 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Rocco Martin
Rashid Magomedov
38
Sig strikes landed
36
84
Sig strikes attempted
73
51
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Anthony Rocco Martin

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

Rashid Magomedov

"Highlander"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29