Back to UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2
Prelims1 Flyweight

Jose Maria vs Dustin Ortiz

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 ·Goiania Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jose Maria
Dustin Ortiz
84% 16%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Maria: 43 sig / 2 TD · Ortiz: 55 sig / 4 TD
Jose Maria
Dustin Ortiz
26
Sig strikes landed
31
51
Sig strikes attempted
60
37
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
146s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
43%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jose Maria

"No Chance"
37-8 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner

Dustin Ortiz

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25