Main
Middleweight
Tim Kennedy vs Rafael Natal
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3
·Fort Campbell
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tim Kennedy
Rafael Natal
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
19-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-9-1
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kennedy: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Natal: 13 sig / 0 TD
Tim Kennedy
Rafael Natal
43
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
101
71
Total strikes landed
61
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.2
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
127s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Kennedy
19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W3
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—