Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Andy Ogle
Cole Miller
51%
49%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
25
Age
Δ 5y
30
10-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ogle: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Miller: 21 sig / 0 TD
Andy Ogle
Cole Miller
35
Sig strikes landed
43
77
Sig strikes attempted
88
59
Total strikes landed
59
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
252s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andy Ogle
"The Little Axe"
10-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L1
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—