Main
Lightweight
Ross Pearson vs Melvin Guillard
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Munoz
·Manchester Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Melvin Guillard
37%
63%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
21-16
Career record
Δ 6 pp
33-18-2
W2
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Pearson: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Guillard: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ross Pearson
Melvin Guillard
45
Sig strikes landed
43
108
Sig strikes attempted
115
53
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
9s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
L
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
Blue corner
W1
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
33-18-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—