Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Mark Munoz
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
35
Age
Δ 0y
36
24-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Machida: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Munoz: 0 sig / 0 TD
Lyoto Machida
Mark Munoz
24
Sig strikes landed
19
53
Sig strikes attempted
44
34
Total strikes landed
36
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—