Main
Light Heavyweight
Rashad Evans vs Chael Sonnen
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Chael Sonnen
51%
49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 2y
37
20-8-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
30-15-1
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Evans: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Sonnen: 3 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Chael Sonnen
31
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
60
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
198s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
20-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Chael Sonnen
30-15-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—