Back to UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Prelims2 Heavyweight

Nandor Guelmino vs Daniel Omielanczuk

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson ·Scotiabank Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Nandor Guelmino
Daniel Omielanczuk
57% 43%
Why
38
Age
Δ 7y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Guelmino: 56 sig / 0 TD · Omielanczuk: 49 sig / 2 TD
Nandor Guelmino
Daniel Omielanczuk
42
Sig strikes landed
42
96
Sig strikes attempted
101
60
Total strikes landed
62
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
95s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Nandor Guelmino

"The Hun"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Age
38
Blue corner

Daniel Omielanczuk

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31