Main
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Erik Perez
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Erik Perez
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-6
W2
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Mizugaki: 39 sig / 2 TD ·
Perez: 37 sig / 5 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Erik Perez
32
Sig strikes landed
34
64
Sig strikes attempted
77
48
Total strikes landed
45
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
111s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W3
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—