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Prelims1 Welterweight

Justin Edwards vs Brandon Thatch

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 ·Bankers Life Fieldhouse
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Justin Edwards
Brandon Thatch
45% 55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edwards: 2 sig / 0 TD · Thatch: 17 sig / 1 TD
Justin Edwards
Brandon Thatch
29
Sig strikes landed
35
57
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
54
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
192s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Justin Edwards

"Fast Eddy"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
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L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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Blue corner

Brandon Thatch

"Rukus"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
28