🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Benson Henderson vs Anthony Pettis
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
·Bradley Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Anthony Pettis
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
25-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
25-10
W7
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Henderson: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Pettis: 9 sig / 0 TD
Benson Henderson
Anthony Pettis
47
Sig strikes landed
45
107
Sig strikes attempted
117
77
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
189s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W3
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
25-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—