Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Main Middleweight

Daniel Sarafian vs Eddie Mendez

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum ·Paulo Sarasate Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Daniel Sarafian
Eddie Mendez
76% 24%
Why
31
Age
Δ 1y
29
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sarafian: 8 sig / 1 TD · Mendez: 4 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Sarafian
Eddie Mendez
40
Sig strikes landed
44
100
Sig strikes attempted
112
53
Total strikes landed
69
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Daniel Sarafian

10-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
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Blue corner

Eddie Mendez

0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Age
29