Back to The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
Prelims2 Featherweight

Justin Lawrence vs Daniel Pineda

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Justin Lawrence
Daniel Pineda
51% 49%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
10-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
28-18
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lawrence: 0 sig / 0 TD · Pineda: 1 sig / 2 TD
Justin Lawrence
Daniel Pineda
31
Sig strikes landed
40
82
Sig strikes attempted
89
47
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
95s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
34%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Justin Lawrence

"The American Kidd"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
L2

Daniel Pineda

"The Pit"
28-18 (3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—