Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi
Main Light Heavyweight

Gegard Mousasi vs Ilir Latifi

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi ·Ericsson Globe
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Ilir Latifi
96% 4%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mousasi: 80 sig / 0 TD · Latifi: 18 sig / 1 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Ilir Latifi
40
Sig strikes landed
28
82
Sig strikes attempted
63
56
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Gegard Mousasi

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Ilir Latifi

"The Sledgehammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31