🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Chael Sonnen
93%
7%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 11"
74"
26
Age
Δ 10y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 34 pp
29-16-1
W8
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jones: 20 sig / 3 TD ·
Sonnen: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Chael Sonnen
59
Sig strikes landed
24
91
Sig strikes attempted
53
87
Total strikes landed
52
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
287s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
L1
Chael Sonnen
29-16-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—