Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Manley
Neil Magny
29%
71%
Why
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Manley: 17 sig / 1 TD ·
Magny: 65 sig / 4 TD
Jon Manley
Neil Magny
31
Sig strikes landed
40
71
Sig strikes attempted
81
46
Total strikes landed
58
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
117s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jon Manley
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26