Back to UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Main Welterweight

Gunnar Nelson vs Jorge Santiago

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald ·The SSE Arena, Wembley
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Jorge Santiago
72% 28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
25
Age
Δ 8y
32
20-6-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
25-13
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 42 sig / 2 TD · Santiago: 43 sig / 0 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Jorge Santiago
29
Sig strikes landed
13
47
Sig strikes attempted
37
48
Total strikes landed
32
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
313s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
30%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Gunnar Nelson

"Gunni"
20-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
L2

Jorge Santiago

"The Sandman"
25-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—