Main
Welterweight
Che Mills vs Matthew Riddle
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
·The SSE Arena, Wembley
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Che Mills
Matthew Riddle
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
17-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
9-3
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Mills: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Riddle: 23 sig / 5 TD
Che Mills
Matthew Riddle
34
Sig strikes landed
25
79
Sig strikes attempted
73
45
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Che Mills
"Beautiful"
17-10
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
W2
Matthew Riddle
"Deep Waters"
9-3
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—