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Wagner Prado vs Ildemar Alcantara

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Wagner Prado
Ildemar Alcantara
59% 41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Prado: 28 sig / 0 TD · Alcantara: 24 sig / 2 TD
Wagner Prado
Ildemar Alcantara
22
Sig strikes landed
35
52
Sig strikes attempted
68
39
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
69s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Wagner Prado

"Caldeirao"
12-4 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner

Ildemar Alcantara

"Marajo"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30