Back to UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Edwin Figueroa vs Francisco Rivera

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Edwin Figueroa
Francisco Rivera
63% 37%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
10-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-7
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Figueroa: 24 sig / 1 TD · Rivera: 51 sig / 2 TD
Edwin Figueroa
Francisco Rivera
41
Sig strikes landed
38
96
Sig strikes attempted
88
57
Total strikes landed
52
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
165s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Edwin Figueroa

"El Feroz"
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
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W UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
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L UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
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Blue corner
W1

Francisco Rivera

"Cisco"
11-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
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