Main
Middleweight
Chris Leben vs Derek Brunson
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Chris Leben
Derek Brunson
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
L1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Leben: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 41 sig / 4 TD
Chris Leben
Derek Brunson
32
Sig strikes landed
38
72
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
55
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
127s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Leben
"The Crippler"
22-12
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
L
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
Derek Brunson
"The One"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29