Prelims1
Lightweight
Daron Cruickshank vs Henry Martinez
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
Henry Martinez
78%
22%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
19-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cruickshank: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Martinez: 21 sig / 0 TD
Daron Cruickshank
Henry Martinez
40
Sig strikes landed
18
83
Sig strikes attempted
59
58
Total strikes landed
41
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
266s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Henry Martinez
"Sicario"
10-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—