Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Riki Fukuda
Tom DeBlass
73%
27%
Why
32
Age
Δ 1y
30
24-10
Career record
Δ 4 pp
9-3
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fukuda: 85 sig / 3 TD ·
DeBlass: 44 sig / 0 TD
Riki Fukuda
Tom DeBlass
44
Sig strikes landed
44
89
Sig strikes attempted
101
128
Total strikes landed
75
2.0
Takedowns landed
3.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
7.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
213s
Control time
271s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Riki Fukuda
24-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom DeBlass
9-3
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—