Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Cristiano Marcello
Reza Madadi
48%
52%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
13-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Marcello: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Madadi: 77 sig / 3 TD
Cristiano Marcello
Reza Madadi
20
Sig strikes landed
37
47
Sig strikes attempted
67
43
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
310s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cristiano Marcello
13-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Reza Madadi
"Mad Dog"
15-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—