Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Charles Oliveira
30%
70%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 6y
23
32-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
38-11
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Swanson: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 6 sig / 1 TD
Cub Swanson
Charles Oliveira
27
Sig strikes landed
35
57
Sig strikes attempted
74
36
Total strikes landed
42
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
48s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Cub Swanson
32-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
Blue corner
W2
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
L
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—