🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones vs Vitor Belfort
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
·Scotiabank Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Jones
Vitor Belfort
95%
5%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 10"
74"
25
Age
Δ 10y
36
29-1
Career record
Δ 31 pp
27-14
W7
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Jones: 65 sig / 1 TD ·
Belfort: 16 sig / 0 TD
Jon Jones
Vitor Belfort
60
Sig strikes landed
20
99
Sig strikes attempted
48
86
Total strikes landed
27
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
293s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
60%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Jon Jones
"Bones"
29-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W2
Vitor Belfort
"The Phenom"
27-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
L
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—