Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lumumba Sayers
Anthony Smith
35%
65%
Why
34
Age
Δ 10y
24
7-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
38-23
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sayers: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Smith: 12 sig / 0 TD
Lumumba Sayers
Anthony Smith
22
Sig strikes landed
35
57
Sig strikes attempted
85
50
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.40
114s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Lumumba Sayers
7-5
Career record
Height
72"
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
L
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Strikeforce Challengers 20
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—