Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tarec Saffiedine
Roger Bowling
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
17-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-6
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saffiedine: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Bowling: 53 sig / 0 TD
Tarec Saffiedine
Roger Bowling
50
Sig strikes landed
47
100
Sig strikes attempted
109
73
Total strikes landed
64
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tarec Saffiedine
"Sponge"
17-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Rockhold vs. Jard…
—
W
Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henders…
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 13
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 8
—
W
Strikeforce Challengers 6
—
Blue corner
W2
Roger Bowling
"Relentless"
13-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
Strikeforce - Tate vs. Rousey
—
W
Strikeforce - Melendez vs. Masv…
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 17
—
W
Strikeforce - Feijao vs. Hender…
—
L
Strikeforce Challengers 11
—