Prelims2
Featherweight
Antonio Carvalho vs Daniel Pineda
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
·Scotiabank Saddledome
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Antonio Carvalho
Daniel Pineda
40%
60%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
15-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
28-18
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Carvalho: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Pineda: 7 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carvalho
Daniel Pineda
21
Sig strikes landed
40
60
Sig strikes attempted
89
40
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
153s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
15-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
L1
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28-18
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—