Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hector Lombard
Tim Boetsch
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
32
—
Current streak
W3
0
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lombard: 26 sig / 2 TD ·
Boetsch: 54 sig / 0 TD
Hector Lombard
Tim Boetsch
26
Sig strikes landed
37
62
Sig strikes attempted
76
47
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Hector Lombard
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
Blue corner
W3
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—