Prelims1
Lightweight
Melvin Guillard vs Fabricio Camoes
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Fabricio Camoes
80%
20%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 4y
34
32-19-2
Career record
Δ 0 pp
15-9-1
L2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Guillard: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Camoes: 18 sig / 1 TD
Melvin Guillard
Fabricio Camoes
28
Sig strikes landed
20
46
Sig strikes attempted
40
36
Total strikes landed
30
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
-0.2
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
84s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32-19-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
W1
Fabricio Camoes
"Morango"
15-9-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
L
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—